An adaptive inference algorithm for integral of one form along rough paths

Stochastic Analysis Seminar Series




We consider a controlled system, in which an input $X: [0, T] \rightarrow E:= \mathbb{R}^{d}$ is a continuous but potentially highly oscillatory path and the corresponding output $Y$ is the line integral along $X$, for some unknown function $f: E \rightarrow E$. The rough paths theory provides a general framework to answer the question on which mild condition of $X$ and $f$, the integral $I(X)$ is well defined. It is robust enough to allow to treat stochastic integrals in a deterministic way. In this paper we are interested in identification of controlled systems of this type. The difficulty comes from the high dimensionality caused by the input of a function type. We propose novel adaptive and non-parametric algorithms to learn the functional relationship between the  input and the output from the data by carefully choosing the feature set of paths based on the rough paths theory and applying linear regression techniques. The algorithms is demonstrated on a financial application where the task is to predict the P$\&$L of the unknown trading strategy.



Ni Hao (University of Oxford)

Monday, October 26, 2015 - 14:15
to 15:15